COVID19 Forecast Dashbaord
This interactive model forecasts the COVID19 path for every country, US State, and US county. This model includes the virus impact on the US economy. It provides a means to understand how a virus spreads, the possible impact on mortality, and the possible need for ICU resources. See articles below for more details.
Disclaimer: The model is for informational purposes only and does not reflect actual events. All models are based on assumptions that do not necessarily predict the future. The models are not intended as a health policy tool. Visit the CDC for info.
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America's
Pyrrhic Victory
America can see the light at the end of the tunnel. The challenge is that not all the world is as fortunate as America in their access to a vaccine, nor do they have a substantial population that developed antibodies after contracting the virus. This situation ensures that the global recovery may not parallel the American experience.
Winter is
Coming
The US faces a stark choice as winter approaches. Seasonal factors provide an amplified environment for the virus to spread, while a fractured political discourse ensures an inadequate response. A national mask mandate and renewed social distancing to avoid further shut-downs is required. Time is of the essence.
An Opening to Repudiate
A bad opening foretells show cancellation. The egregious events transpiring in California, Florida, and Texas show the price of expediency over stoic resolve.
Pandemic
Prelude
The first wave is still underway and about to expand in the three most populous states. Targeted shutdowns by July 4th are expected.
Pandemic
Paths
Early opening could result in a tenfold increase of expected deaths versus the current path. How the economy reopens is key.
Economic
Epidemic
The economic epidemic is delivering uncertainty to such an extent that the equity markets fell at an unparalleled speed.
Countering
COVID19
The prognosis is grim. Millions of dead, overrun hospitals, and insufficient ICU beds for the seriously ill. Understand the choices.