J.W.M. Turner. Rain, Steam, and Speed Confidence Game.  Confidence is the most expensive currency in markets. Investors trade it freely when liquidity is abundant and hoard it when policy shifts. After two years of extraordinary gains driven by artificial intelligence, fiscal largesse, and monetary complacency, the question confronting markets is whether confidence is priced correctly or has become another leveraged asset. Real yields remain above two percent, signaling inves

The winds of political change and the new US trade policy are imperiling the permanence of American exceptionalism. First, expanding tariffs will lead to countermeasures, decreasing global efficiency. Second, higher prices will lower demand for the US consumer, obviating the need to invest in US manufacturing. Third, the political objective of increasing US exports is incompatible with the first two objectives. Furthermore, tariffs cannot generate sufficient revenue.

Asset markets are inflating as the artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy steams forward. From the railway barons to the titans of tech, markets have plowed capital into land grabs when technology introduces new markets. While valuations are not as frothy as prior frenzies, the financial environment is different. Increasing tariffs tax consumption tax a slow growth. The balance sheet of the US is inflated. The result is an economy leveraged beyond its natural rate. This time is