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Global Economics

Tumultuous Trade Trilemma
U.S. Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2025
Labor productivity has faced headwinds since the late 2010s, particularly in manufacturing. High costs are the driver. High-costs and low-value added is not a business model.

Turning Point
Slowing inflation. Moderate employment. The Fed is at a decision point. Stay tuned.

Debt and Demand
Demographics and debt in China conspire to the limit future growth. Other countries will need to lead.
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