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Global Economics

The Misery of Mercantilism
U.S. Economic Outlook First Quarter 2025
The economy is slowing, while trade policy heightens economic and inflation uncertainty. Their combination may bring stagflation or worse.

Turning Point
Slowing inflation. Moderate employment. The Fed is at a decision point. Stay tuned.

Debt and Demand
Demographics and debt in China conspire to the limit future growth. Other countries will need to lead.
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