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Global Economics

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Tumultuous Trade Trilemma
U.S. Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2025

 

Labor productivity has faced headwinds since the late 2010s, particularly in manufacturing. High costs are the driver. High-costs and low-value added is not a business model.

Turning Point

Slowing inflation.  Moderate employment. The Fed is at a decision point. Stay tuned.

Uncertain Politics

Inflation moderates and growth continues. Political uncertainty could upset the trajectory.

Rainy Day

Debt and Demand

Demographics and debt in China conspire to the limit future growth. Other countries will need to lead.

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