Global Portfolio Strategy 2021 Q1 - Stimulating Exuberance
The pump is primed. High valuations in nearly every asset class suggest investors see promise everywhere. Of course, unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus may contribute modestly to the euphoria. Renewed outbreaks across Europe, South America, and Canada are concerning but are unlikely to break the economic momentum. Seasonality is also a concern, as market mavens extol ‘Sell in May and go away.’ While these concerns are all valid, the helicopter money dropped across the world ensures that the economy and investors need not worry about the immediate environment. Easy credit and exciting new technologies compel the investor while sage investors remember past bubbles and speak of prudent valuations. In this environment, the investor’s burden is as old as investing: how to exit before the music stops. The tune is tactical investing. The question is whether to dance or sit it out.