United States Gross Domestic Product

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​Economic Outlook

2021 First Quarter

Asymmetric Inflation

America is on the road to recovery. Fiscal and monetary stimulus is brewing a magnanimous concoction to lift the economy. While the stimulus ingredients are similar around the world, the paths are diverging. This outcome reflects the policy choices made a year ago in America, which pre-funded vaccine development for preferential access. Most of the world lags America in distribution because of their position in the vaccine queue, not their policy response. The result is a multi-speed global recovery that will have the modest benefit of different leaders at different times that reduces the variability of global growth.  The greater challenge is diminished growth in the long-term as tax increases and debt service crowd out other fiscal programs. Fortunately, America faces this global challenge with higher growth prospects as the Millennial generation workforce proportion increases. Carpe diem.




A gain of nearly five percent is expected for 2021. This gain will be the largest in twenty years. The seven trillion dollar debt expansion over the last three years will impair future growth. Targeted fiscal policy should continue to help those in need. The critical concern is avoiding changes to consumer behavior that will endure for a generation.


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Economic Outlook  2021 Q1