United States Gross Domestic Product

Updated Daily. Report Quarterly.

​Economic Outlook

2020 Fourth Quarter

After the Boom, A Bill Awaits

A reversal of fortune is in the cards. After a year-long hibernation, the world salivates at the arrival of the vaccines. The summer season may be one for the record books as demand overwhelms supply in the leisure industries. These short-term forces shield from thought the prodigious debt expansion and monetary largesse that saved the economy. While the US was not alone with expansive economic policies, it was unique with the poorly targeted policies. Most assuredly, growing debt service will conspire with higher tax rates to crimp future demand.  These lurking threats may impede the economy’s return to full employment as the polemic on debt washes over Washington.



A gain of over four percent is expected for 2021. This gain will be the largest in twenty years. The seven trillion dollar debt expansion over the last three years will impair future growth. Targeted fiscal policy should continue to help those in need. The critical concern is avoiding changes to consumer behavior that will endure for a generation.



US Economic Dashboard

Economic Outlook  2020 Q4

Los Angeles  |  San Francisco  |  213-459-3332  |   415-373-7152


©2003-2021 Capital Risk Management LLC. All rights reserved.


Capital Risk Management is a Registered Investment Advisor in California and may transact business there and in other states where it is notice filed or exempt.

Please note that although Capital Risk Management LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser, readers should be aware that registration with any state securities authority

does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Additional information about Capital Risk is available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov or

through the Broker Check at FINRA.

Strategy | Investing | Asset Allocation | Liability Driven Investing | Pensions | Endowments | Enterprise Risk Management | Financial Planning | Wealth Management

Disclosures     Terms of Use     Privacy Statement      Form ADV