The winds of political change and the new US trade policy are imperiling the permanence of American exceptionalism. First, expanding tariffs will lead to countermeasures, decreasing global efficiency. Second, higher prices will lower demand for the US consumer, obviating the need to invest in US manufacturing. Third, the political objective of increasing US exports is incompatible with the first two objectives. Furthermore, tariffs cannot generate sufficient revenue.

Asset markets are inflating as the artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy steams forward. From the railway barons to the titans of tech, markets have plowed capital into land grabs when technology introduces new markets. While valuations are not as frothy as prior frenzies, the financial environment is different. Increasing tariffs tax consumption tax a slow growth. The balance sheet of the US is inflated. The result is an economy leveraged beyond its natural rate. This time is

A return to Renaissance thought appeals to artists and scientists, not to economists. That a country forged in a revolt against tariffs would return to mercantilism highlights the change in the global economic order. Multiplying this choice is the venture away from free markets and ideas to one of state-controlled regulation. The incongruence of these policies with the global dominance of US companies, which extract monopolistic rents from foreign consumers. 200 years of grow

The Fed’s mandate of full employment and moderate inflation will face challenges this year. Goods inflation will magnify the rise in housing costs as tariffs disrupt trade. The Fed will face the challenge of managing a slowing economy and declining employment. Monetary policy's limited influence over trade-war driven unemployment, the risk of stagflation will loom large. The Fed will need politicians to reverse the economic turmoil they have created.

The Fed’s mandate of full employment and moderate inflation ensures conflict at turning points. The challenge for the Fed is finding the balance to ensure a “soft landing” of the economy. The prolonged elevation of interest rates will ultimately lead to a slower economy and lower employment. The trouble arises with housing: lower interest rates in response to the Pandemic fed housing market prices. The Fed faces the same risk: lower interest rates may lift housing and limit

America’s bifurcated economy faces a long-dormant specter: inflation. The challenge for investors is determining whether this nefarious...

The Property Ladder, Capital Risk's US Economic Outlook for the second quarter of 2021.

America is on the road to recovery. A multi-speed global recovery that will supply different leaders at different times and smooth growth.

A reversal of fortune is in the cards. The summer season may be one for the record books. Learn why.

Everyone grows old and slows down. Global growth is no different. As the developed world struggles to achieve growth rates that it...