J.W.M. Turner. Rain, Steam, and Speed Confidence Game.  Confidence is the most expensive currency in markets. Investors trade it freely when liquidity is abundant and hoard it when policy shifts. After two years of extraordinary gains driven by artificial intelligence, fiscal largesse, and monetary complacency, the question confronting markets is whether confidence is priced correctly or has become another leveraged asset. Real yields remain above two percent, signaling inves

A return to Renaissance thought appeals to artists and scientists, not to economists. That a country forged in a revolt against tariffs would return to mercantilism highlights the change in the global economic order. Multiplying this choice is the venture away from free markets and ideas to one of state-controlled regulation. The incongruence of these policies with the global dominance of US companies, which extract monopolistic rents from foreign consumers. 200 years of grow

The Fed’s mandate of full employment and moderate inflation ensures conflict at turning points. The challenge for the Fed is finding the balance to ensure a “soft landing” of the economy. The prolonged elevation of interest rates will ultimately lead to a slower economy and lower employment. The trouble arises with housing: lower interest rates in response to the Pandemic fed housing market prices. The Fed faces the same risk: lower interest rates may lift housing and limit

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