US Economic Outlook 2020

The US economy shows a stable consumer with monetary and fiscal policies providing support. While betting against the US consumer is for those with the strength of conviction, broad-based declines of import and investment suggest the demise of demand and a slump of supply. In a world of instant data, however, companies can ramp up or slow down quickly. Thus, the critical question is whether investment declines will reverse? Key performance indicators are the growth of business investment led by new orders, US credit expansion supporting the consumer, and foreign demand lifting exports. A US election will make this a year of living dangerously while commodity prices pull
the headline inflation rate lower.