top of page

Tumultuous Trade Trilemma

The magnificent seven stocks have supported global growth over the last few years, driving a divergence between the US and the rest of the world. The winds of political change and the new US trade policy are imperiling the permanence of American exceptionalism. First, expanding tariffs will lead to countermeasures against US exports, ultimately decreasing global efficiency. Second, higher prices will lower demand for a price-sensitive US consumer, obviating the need to invest in US manufacturing. Third, the political objective of increasing US exports is incompatible with the first two objectives. Furthermore, tariffs cannot generate sufficient revenue at the proposed rates to sustain income tax cuts, which would increase interest rate costs. This tumultuous trade policy could return global markets to the 1970s, or worse, the 1930s. Better to beggar thy neighbor than thyself.

Tumultuous Trade Trilemma

Long Beach, CA  |  213-459-3332

 

©2017-2025 Capital Risk Management LLC. All rights reserved.

 

Capital Risk Management is a Registered Investment Advisor in California and may transact business there and in other states where it is notice filed or exempt.

Please note that although Capital Risk Management LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser, readers should be aware that registration with any state securities authority

does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Additional information about Capital Risk is available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov or

through the Broker Check at FINRA.

​

Strategy | Investing | Asset Allocation | Liability Driven Investing | Pensions | Endowments | Enterprise Risk Management | Financial Planning | Wealth Management

​

Disclosures     Terms of Use     Privacy Statement      Form ADV

​

bottom of page