GPS 25Q4 Confidence Meets Constraints

Navigating Constraints. The global economy is in a state of balance rather than stress. Growth persists, markets function, and volatility remains contained. Yet beneath this surface stability, the terms of participation have changed. Capital is no longer abundant and indiscriminate; it is available, but conditional. Across equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies, markets are enforcing discipline where policy has postponed it. Assets tied to balance-sheet strength, pricing power, and funding durability continue to perform, while those dependent on leverage, duration, or optimistic refinancing assumptions face narrowing tolerance. This is not a transition driven by fear or contraction. It is a repricing of endurance. Confidence remains intact yet now meets constraint. Returns increasingly reflect structure rather than narrative, resilience rather than momentum. In this environment, leadership belongs to those able to operate under higher real rates, persistent fiscal absorption, and selective capital allocation. The cycle has not ended. It has matured.