Global Equity BMI

 

Global Equity

  • Risk management is crucial with high valuations and concentrated.

  • Equity risk is the only factor that matters.

  • A leader of the last decade, Energy, contributes disproportionately to risk.

  • Energy and Financials valuations are extreme levels for earnings and cash flows.

  • Diversification benefits exist in Consumer Staples and Utilities; however, the position is contingent on the unlikely scenario of higher inflation.

The global economy is showing signs of revival as economics data continues to surprise in Asia and Europe. While China continues as a primary driver of the global economy, fractures are present in its proxies: Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan, which belies the economic data emanating from China. As Japan in the 1990's, the work-out of their unprecedented credit expansion will cause global price deflation of goods, whose impact on equities remains uncertain. The challenge of the time, however, is the new mountain of debt incurred to fight the Pandemic, which constrains future fiscal policies across the globe. In a world of fractured policy and Pandemic responses, sector and country selection is critical for investing.

 

Global Equity BMI Dashboard

Updated Daily (After Market Close)

Risk & Return

 

The primacy of the Technology sector continues to drive the expectation of efficient returns in the US. In contrast, Energy offers little efficiency to the investor as the combination of benchmark returns and high risk is unpalatable.

  • The low returns of Utilities and Consumer Staples reflect their defensive characteristics and provide a harbor of safety during uncertainty.

  • Little efficiency is implied for Technology and Energy, which may reflect the nascent global economic slowdown.

Valuation

The outlier for valuations in the developed markets is the Energy sector and, to a lesser extent, the Financial sector. In contrast, Consumer Staples offer sound valuations; however, growing economic uncertainty may suggest a value trap.

  • Cash flows are a sign of a healthy company and Technology is the best relative value under this standard with earnings that parallel other developed markets.

  • Consumer Staples and Materials offer compelling yields relative to the aggregate for cash flow investors, where valuations reflect fair pricing of their growth prospects.

Risk & Factors

 

The Consumer Discretionary sector is contributing disproportionately to global risk. With factor exposures delineated clearly between growth or not, the critical question is whether growth investing will continue its primacy. Technology proliferation and anti-trusts mandates suggest the requiem is near.

  • Global exposure to Real Rates suggest a material impact from a rising yield curve in the US, while lower inflation expectations may impair the defensive sectors.

  • A stronger US dollar may benefit the Technology sector and mitigate some of the currency risk, while Consumer Staples and Communications may soften the blow of falling commodity prices.