J.W.M. Turner. Rain, Steam, and Speed Confidence Game.  Confidence is the most expensive currency in markets. Investors trade it freely when liquidity is abundant and hoard it when policy shifts. After two years of extraordinary gains driven by artificial intelligence, fiscal largesse, and monetary complacency, the question confronting markets is whether confidence is priced correctly or has become another leveraged asset. Real yields remain above two percent, signaling inves

Commodity prices enjoyed a historic advance before the Great Recession as global economic growth expanded. Despite a rebound in growth...