J.W.M. Turner. Rain, Steam, and Speed Confidence Game.  Confidence is the most expensive currency in markets. Investors trade it freely when liquidity is abundant and hoard it when policy shifts. After two years of extraordinary gains driven by artificial intelligence, fiscal largesse, and monetary complacency, the question confronting markets is whether confidence is priced correctly or has become another leveraged asset. Real yields remain above two percent, signaling inves

Asset markets are inflating as the artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy steams forward. From the railway barons to the titans of tech, markets have plowed capital into land grabs when technology introduces new markets. While valuations are not as frothy as prior frenzies, the financial environment is different. Increasing tariffs tax consumption tax a slow growth. The balance sheet of the US is inflated. The result is an economy leveraged beyond its natural rate. This time is

Reopening the global economy brings inflation pressures. the greater risk may lay with China’s real estate bubble.

Constrained Supply. The global economy is reopening, with the U.S. leading the way with its vaccine roll-out. While the Delta variant of...

As the page turns to a new year and a new President, bond investors fear the return of inflation. Tight labor markets, expected fiscal...

The cost of capital is the linchpin that directs investment to the worthiest causes in a free market; however, sometime the market is not...