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Deconstructing Inflation

As the page turns to a new year and a new President, bond investors fear the return of inflation. Tight labor markets, expected fiscal stimulus, deficits, the pullback of monetary stimulus, and reduction by a primary holder of US Treasuries are bringing higher inflation expectations. After a thirty-five-year run for bonds, the cycle certainly seems long in the tooth. Nonetheless, proper positioning for higher inflation requires understanding the drivers of inflation; no matter their uncertainty. As with any strategy, the inability to identify critical factors will deliver improper focus and a response unsuited for the environment. Unpacking the basket. Inflation is frequently measured by ch

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