US Economic Outlook 2019

The economic environment in the US has a stable consumer and supportive
fiscal policy, which should carry the US economy for the year with government
expenditures supporting. A strong US dollar continues to augment imports and impair exports. The question is whether investment will rebound or is the decade long expansion ending? Key performance indicators are the growth of investment and residential structures, a higher US dollar supporting imports while constraining exports, and expanding employment to encourage consumption. While political dysfunction will gather headlines, the main risk is the continued Chinese rebalancing of their credit markets, which is in uncharted territory. Politics, however, can trump economics in an instant.

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