U.S. Economic Outlook 2021 First Quarter
America is on the road to recovery. Fiscal and monetary stimulus is brewing a magnanimous concoction to lift the economy. While the stimulus ingredients are similar globally, the paths are diverging. This outcome reflects the policy choices made a year ago in America, which pre-funded vaccine development for preferential access. Most of the world lags America in distribution because of their position in the vaccine queue, not their policy response. The result is a multi-speed global recovery that reduces the variability of global growth. The greater challenge is diminished growth in the long-term as tax increases and debt service crowd out other fiscal programs. Fortunately, America faces this global challenge with higher growth prospects as the Millennial generation workforce proportion increases. Carpe diem.