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Prelude to Pandemic

The first wave is just beginning, not ending. For New York, the virus was a catastrophic eradication of life that was previously unimaginable. The economic calamity only worsened the forlorn feeling of the populace. The reality is that confirmed cases are less than five percent of the population in New York. Nationally, the number is less than one percent. Ninety-nine percent of the population remains susceptible to the disease, and a vaccine at scale is at least six months away. The good news is that the fatality rates appear lower than initially measured. The bad news is that the US reproduction rate’s current growth would return to the May 1st level by July 4th. The implication: the larger confirmed base would require further targeted constraints on movement in the US and globally.

Prelude to Pandemic