Interest Rates: A Growth Story

Interest rates in the US are at levels never seen before. Companies gorge on debt as their cost of debt capital declines. Meanwhile, income-focused investors and savers yearn for the security of higher levels. Monetary policy certainly abetted the achievement of these levels. The reality is that another factor is complicit in the conspiracy to lower interest rates: growth. Before the yield suppression of the 1940s and the inflationary disconnect of the 1970s led them on a different path, real Treasury yields walked with real growth for decades. That relationship returned over the last four decades. Before the Pandemic, the expectation was that the increasing productivity of the Millennial generation would modestly lift real rates. Without an effective policy response, that outcome is doubtful and could repress real rates for decades. Investors are forewarned that this time is not different.

San Francisco  |   Los Angeles  |  415-373-7152

 

©2003-2020 Capital Risk Management LLC

 

Capital Risk Management is a Registered Investment Advisor in California and may transact business there and in other states where it is notice filed or exempt.

Please note that although Capital Risk Management LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser, readers should be aware that registration with any state securities authority

does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Additional information about Capital Risk is available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov or

through the Broker Check at FINRA.

Strategy | Investing | Asset Allocation | Liability Driven Investing | Pensions | Endowments | Enterprise Risk Management | Financial Planning | Wealth Management

Disclosures     Terms of Use     Privacy Statement      Form ADV