Global Portfolio Strategy 21Q3 - China's Emerging Peak
Testing Policy. Reopening the global economy brings inflation pressures as supply chains lag accelerating demand. Certainly, cargo ships littering the port of Los Angeles signal supply chain issues, not a prolonged inflation threat. While investors rightly fret about inflation, the greater risk may lay with China’s real estate bubble. The unraveling of a credit bubble can bring a debt-deflation spiral that counters the narrative of the moment, inflation. Deflation would leave investors poorly positioned as temporary inflation distracts them from the greater threat. Regardless of the locale, investors are now beholden to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy exit and China’s ability to deflate their debt bubble. While political scientists await the validation of capitalism or communism, investors hold their breath.