Global Portfolio Strategy - First Quarter 2020
The speed of the equity market decline shares a common trait with the bull market that preceded it: they are both unprecedented in their length. The longest bull market gave way to the fastest crash in US history. Investing was infected with
the economic calamity that results when whole segments of an economy close their doors. Uncertainty abounds. How long will the virus mitigation strategies endure? Do fiscal and monetary policies meet the moment? How are corporate earnings affected? Since the moment is unparalleled, prior references are inadequate guides. This outcome is the paradox of an era of copious data and abundant analytics: investors must forecast based on the coherence of their argument, rather than the precision of their analysis. Our argument is simple: this too will pass, and companies with a defensible market position and robust financing will endure.