Deflating Demand - US Economic Outlook 21Q3
America’s bifurcated economy faces a long-dormant specter, inflation. The challenge for investors is determining whether this nefarious outcome is a temporary or permanent feature of the post-Pandemic landscape. The answer lies in assessing its root cause. The Pandemic’s onset brought a health policy-induced retrenchment of service demand. With the consumption of services off the table, consumers transferred spending to goods. The fiscal response amplified this decision by increasing incomes broadly. The reality of just-in-time supply chains was that they depend upon stable demand. The resultant supply bottlenecks delivered inflation. Adaption will occur in time and provide higher supply while incomes lower with fading stimulus payments. As business adapts, this too will pass.